Holding on to Optimism

Remember, it's a long way to November

Seems as though optimism is in short supply these days, with all the infuriating gerrymandering going on all over the nation. Today’s bad news about Virginia’s maps being struck down is even worse. I find I’m avoiding the news as I haven’t since the Biden debate debacle. It’s just too depressing.

However, just as I was giving way to depression, I was heartened by this installment of Chop Wood Carry Water, a daily substack by Jess Craven. And so I thought I would pass it on to you, in case you need a little pep talk going into the weekend.

She points out that far too many people are loudly and publicly prophesying electoral doom six months from now.

She says bluntly, “I call BS. Certainly, this sucks. It’s unfair. It’s depressing. It’s enraging. And certainly we will win the House by fewer seats because of this decision (and Republicans’ absolutely ruthless racist gerrymandering). But there is still a clear path to winning it, and we will. Because voters are pissed in a way they haven’t been in years.

“I’ll go a step further and say that telling people “we’re f*cked,” or “the House is gone,” or “what’s the point?” right now is abetting the enemy. That is exactly what they want you to do! MAGA has always been excellent at depressing turnout via sowing division, killing morale, and using skewed polls. They love that Democrats are throwing their hands up right now. They are counting on it. Because they are still likely to lose in November, but if we give up, then maybe, just maybe they’ll have a chance.

“Remember these things today: Republicans have gerrymandered themselves about an 11 seat advantage when all is said and done. We won 40 seats in 2018. Wave elections can be crazy! This particular wave election is shaping up to be historic. Don’t discount that.

“And on the subject of Republicans’ newly drawn seats, some will likely prove to have been dummymandered. I was told by a reputable source this morning that half of the new seats Texas Republicans drew for themselves could actually go blue. Florida could furnish some pleasant surprises, too. There’s a reason Florida Republicans are reluctant to approve the maps DeSantis is proposing—even though they will. They’re no fools. In a wave election—and again, this will be one for sure—they could lose some of those seats. We must make sure they do.

“Also, as Environmental Voter Project’s Nathaniel Stinnett pointed out in his newsletter this morning, “The original (new again) Virginia congressional map still might yield 4 Democratic pick-ups.” He referred us to a G. Elliott Morris piece written before the referendum was passed. At the very least everyone I’ve spoken with feels that two are likely to flip.

“Consider these facts as well: Trump will only become more unhinged between now and the election. The Republicans are about to pass a deeply unpopular reconciliation bill that adds 71B to the deficit and helps Americans not at all. The generic Congressional ballot has Democrats up between +6 and +10. Democrats are wildly overperforming in special elections. Trump’s approval rating is the lowest it’s ever been, and his disapproval ratings are breaking records. Gas prices are averaging $4.50 a gallon and they won’t be coming down to pre-war levels for at least a year. Speaking of the war, it’s a disaster, and no matter what resolution we get, we’ll be in a worse position than we were before. Trump has no message, no plan to get prices down. Latinos, upon whom Republicans are relying to win their newly drawn seats in many places, have utterly soured on Trump. Young people have, too. Heck, even Evangelicals are losing faith in him—no pun intended.

“I could go on. There are a million reasons why we can and will still win in November. So please share a can-do message rather than a doom and gloom one. Remember, people are looking to you for guidance! They will follow your lead.”

And I found these forthright words helpful, so I thought I would pass them along. I’ll still skip the evening news tonight, maybe even all weekend. And that’s okay. We all need breaks occasionally, so I’ll indulge.

But then Monday it’s back to work.