What Could Be More Important than the Presidential Election?

The Crucial Eighteen Candidates You’ve Never Heard Of

Swing states, it’s all about the swing states, they say. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia…they’re the ones that will determine the election, and the other states don’t matter…or do they? New York State, California, Oregon, they’re going to go blue, of course they are, so why waste time trying to get out the vote there? But this year, voters in eighteen districts, mostly in non-swing, bright blue states, could determine the fate of the nation.

The Presidential election is the Big One, the main event, that sucks all the oxygen and gets our attention. And of course this one is hugely consequential. But the “little” races--for instance, the competitions for the House of Representatives--are far more important than they might appear.

In 2022, Democrats took it easy in states that seemed like a sure thing, and voter turnout was quite low. After the massive effort of 2020, everyone was tired, everyone was sick of election ads and lawn signs and pleas for donations. In reliably blue New York State, only 43 per cent of Democrats made it to the polls, and it was the same story in other blue states. This led to eighteen Congressional districts that Joe Biden won in 2020 being flipped red.

And this cost the House of Representatives a Democratic majority. Those unexciting “little races” that Democrats assumed were sure things, were lost, mostly by a tiny margin of votes. And that changed the balance of power in Congress. Those losses led to all the chaos and wasted time, the endless investigations and roadblocks and dead ends in Congress. Those eighteen Republicans ran as moderates, but they have voted with MAGA extremists time and again.

So…what can we do about this?

I’m always comparison shopping for progressive organizations, trying to find the ones that are the least annoying and most effective. There are a bunch of them, but so far Indivisible is my favorite. Formed in 2016 by a couple of former Congressional staffers, they have a good sense of how to get things done in the corridors of power, in a practical way. Of course, if you sign up on their website, they’ll send you emails begging for donations, but not very often, and usually with some worthwhile info and heartening pep talks attached. (I delete all emails from organizations with headings like BAD NEWS or DISASTER IMMINENT…I’m nervous enough already.)

Anyway, Invisible has identified the eighteen districts where it’s most worth putting your efforts. Much as I’d love to dislodge Matt Gaetz or Marjorie Taylor Greene, these eighteen are the place to focus. That’s where you should mail your postcards, try phone banking, or consider donating. And don’t underestimate the power of spreading the word on social media, especially if you live in or near one of the eighteen districts.

Since I live not too far from one of the NYS districts, I’m going to investigate the possibilities for doing voter registration drives or poster campaigns at some of the community colleges in the district. Again, most of these districts were flipped by a handful of votes.

We’re all focused with bated breath on Biden v Trump. In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t seem to matter if Josh Riley beats Marc Molinaro in NY-19. These are small-time races with candidates no one has heard of. But they could make all the difference.

If (fingers crossed) Biden wins, imagine what it would be like if both House and Senate had a Republican majority. Impeachment, investigations, dead-ends, budget crises and shutdowns and roadblocks.

And if (may all the gods forfend) Trump wins, a blue House of Representatives could hold him in check and help to allay some part of the unimaginable damage he’ll wreak.

And remember, if Democrats have a majority in the House—even by one paltry vote—it changes everything. A Democrat wields the gavel as Speaker of the House. Democrats become the heads of committees. Democrats decide what bills get voted on. One little race in NY-17 or NJ-07 or CA-45 could turn everything around. It’s worth our attention.

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Here are the 18 who are our (as Indivisible calls them) Unrepresentatives:

David Schweikert, AZ-01

Michelle Steel, CA-45

Mike Lawler, NY-17

Juan Ciscomani, AZ-06

Don Bacon, NE-02

Mark Molinaro, NY-19

John Duarte, CA-13

Tom Kean, NJ-07

Brandon Williams, NY-22

David Valadao, CA-22

Nick LaLota, NY-01

Lori Chavez-De Remer, OR-05

Mike Garcia, CA-27

George Santos NY-03

Brian Fitzpatrick, PA-01

Young Kim, CA-40

Anthony D’Esposito, NY-04

Jen Kiggans, VA-02

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Dear Friends,

Are you more than a little worried about the election of 2024 and wondering what to do about it? I hope you’ll continue to check out my substack, The Optimistic Activist.

Every Tuesday I plan to post some ideas for doing something. How to get out the vote, spread the word, and support progressive candidates. Ideas for simple but effective activism. As easy, as practical, as do-able as I can make them.

Together, I think, we could really make a difference.